| The Whatcom Excavator |
|
Best Available Science
You may have heard the expression, "Correlation does not imply causation". It may be the most important principle that any scientist can hold. It means that just because two things occur together, it doesn't imply that one caused the other, or vice-versa. It might be just a coincidence. Without predictable repetition, coincidence is the most likely explanation.
The scientific method evolved to separate coincidence from cause and effect. Without a clear understanding of cause and effect, all we're left with is faith, or superstition. Junk science happens when people jump to conclusions, or use the trappings of science for marketing political ideas without doing the often painstaking work of verifying their claims. Good government requires public policy based on objective truth.
As the twentieth century drew to a close, the connection between hard scientific fact and public policy became increasingly elastic. In part this was possible because of the complacency of the scientific profession; in part because of the lack of good science education among the public; in part, because of the rise of specialized advocacy groups which have been enormously effective in getting publicity and shaping policy; and in great part because of the decline of the media as an independent assessor of fact. ~ Aliens Cause Global Warming: A Caltech Lecture by Michael Crichton
The scientific method evolved to separate coincidence from cause and effect. Without a clear understanding of cause and effect, all we're left with is faith, or superstition. Junk science happens when people jump to conclusions, or use the trappings of science for marketing political ideas without doing the often painstaking work of verifying their claims. Good government requires public policy based on objective truth.
As the twentieth century drew to a close, the connection between hard scientific fact and public policy became increasingly elastic. In part this was possible because of the complacency of the scientific profession; in part because of the lack of good science education among the public; in part, because of the rise of specialized advocacy groups which have been enormously effective in getting publicity and shaping policy; and in great part because of the decline of the media as an independent assessor of fact. ~ Aliens Cause Global Warming: A Caltech Lecture by Michael Crichton
"The best available science" isn't good enough if it can't be verified. The "precautionary principle" (better safe than sorry) has become a tempting solution in these cases. But a fundamental principle in The United States of America is that a man is presumed innocent until proven guilty. The precautionary principle turns that on its head, by assuming (a) man is guilty of harm without any proof. Faith is deemed sufficient to convict us under the precautionary principle.
If something can't be proven, then it can only be taken on faith, which makes it no different from religion. This is why the founders included the non-establishment clause in The First Amendment to The Constitution of the United States. Public policy without objective truth -- no matter how deeply held -- is arbitrary, capricious and potentially tyrannical.
Actual Data about our local climate - Snowpack & Precipitation
Here's some material verified by bona fide scientists:
|
|
|
|
(Click the images to see detailed information - actual data showing current trends.)
What About Consensus?
We keep hearing about the 97% of scientists who agree that humans are doing something funky to the climate. They can't seem to agree if it's warming, cooling, or some other thing. Here's an Inside Science article that talks about consensus. It's called, Scientific Consensus Is Almost Never Wrong — Almost.
Consensus in science is rarely wrong, but it can happen. I'm not talking about wonderfully strange theoretical ideas that come out of advanced physics, but more concrete and relatable ideas that are completely wiped out by a giant breakthrough. There is much more evidence to support human-caused climate change than there ever was for the now-discredited theory on how the continents were formed. Still, wise climatologists -- and scientists in any field, really -- should take note. (Continue reading ... )
Since the science is almost never settled, a bit of agreement enters into it, but if you have testable, reproducible results, then the science means something, and you can accurately make prescriptions for future results. We have nothing of the sort when it comes to Anthropogenic Global Whatever. No reproducible results, and whatever prescriptions we're making have no testable evidence that they will work.
It's fine if people want to try it out on their own, based on faith. That's what religion is all about. The founders made freedom of religion a right, but they stopped short of allowing government to mandate religion for the masses. Carbon tax is about to change all that ... we seem to have lost the basic wisdom we gained during The Enlightenment.
It's fine if people want to try it out on their own, based on faith. That's what religion is all about. The founders made freedom of religion a right, but they stopped short of allowing government to mandate religion for the masses. Carbon tax is about to change all that ... we seem to have lost the basic wisdom we gained during The Enlightenment.
Powered by
