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Physicist Hayden on Policy that's Science-blind

5/10/2014

1 Comment

 
Bless 'em all:  "People will do anything to save the world … except take a course in science”...

Despite the continuing performance failure of IPCC based university "ecology department" models and predictions, WA Governor Inslee keeps truckin' on with his big plan to change the world by dictum. See Executive Order 14-04 dated April 29.  It's loaded with a case of frights that sells best the uninformed, with little understanding of how science works. Demagogues thrive on ignorance, acquiring "power and popularity by arousing the emotions of persons and prejudices of the people."  The AGW crisis politic and its supporting eco-industry feed on true believers - who behave rather like cargo-cultists and the ouija board set - of which there are many in Whatcom County.

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Tu Ne Cede Malis = do not yield to evil
Physicist Howard Hayden’s one-letter disproof of global warming claims

OCTOBER 29, 2009 by STEPHAN KINSELLA

Physicist Howard Hayden, a staunch advocate of sound energy policy, sent me a copy of his letter to the EPA about global warming. The text is also appended below, with permission.

As noted in my post Access to Energy, Hayden helped the late, great Petr Beckmann found the dissident physics journal Galilean Electrodynamics (brochures and further Beckmann info here; further dissident physics links). Hayden later began to publish his own pro-energy newsletter, The Energy Advocate, following in the footsteps of Beckmann’s own journal Access to Energy  I love Hayden’s email sign-off, “People will do anything to save the world … except take a course in science.”  Here’s the letter:

***

Howard C. Hayden
785 S. McCoy Drive
Pueblo West, CO 81007

October 27, 2009

The Honorable Lisa P. Jackson, Administrator
Environmental Protection Agency
1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW Washington, DC 20460

Dear Administrator Jackson:

I write in regard to the Proposed Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases Under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act, Proposed Rule, 74 Fed. Reg. 18,886 (Apr. 24, 2009), the so-called “Endangerment Finding.”

It has been often said that the “science is settled” on the issue of CO2 and climate. Let me put this claim to rest with a simple one-letter proof that it is false.

The letter is s, the one that changes model into models. If the science were settled, there would be precisely one model, and it would be in agreement with measurements.

Alternatively, one may ask which one of the twenty-some models settled the science so that all the rest could be discarded along with the research funds that have kept those models alive.

We can take this further. Not a single climate model predicted the current cooling phase. If the science were settled, the model (singular) would have predicted it.

Let me next address the horror story that we are approaching (or have passed) a “tipping point.” Anybody who has worked with amplifiers knows about tipping points. The output “goes to the rail.” Not only that, butit stays there. That’s the official worry coming from the likes of James Hansen (of NASA­GISS) and Al Gore.

But therein lies the proof that we are nowhere near a tipping point. The earth, it seems, has seen times when the CO2 concentration was up to 8,000 ppm, and that did not lead to a tipping point. If it did, we would not be here talking about it. In fact, seen on the long scale, the CO2 concentration in the present cycle of glacials (ca. 200 ppm) and interglacials (ca. 300-400 ppm) is lower than it has been for the last 300 million years.

Global-warming alarmists tell us that the rising CO2 concentration is (A) anthropogenic and (B) leading to global warming.

(A) CO2 concentration has risen and fallen in the past with no help from mankind. The present rise began in the 1700s, long before humans could have made a meaningful contribution. Alarmists have failed to ask, let alone answer, what the CO2 level would be today if we had never burned any fuels. They simply assume that it would be the “pre-industrial” value.

§  The solubility of CO2 in water decreases as water warms, and increases as water cools. The warming of the earth since the Little Ice Age has thus caused the oceans to emit CO2 into the atmosphere.

(B) The first principle of causality is that the cause has to come before the effect. The historical record shows that climate changes precede CO2 changes. How, then, can one conclude that CO2 is responsible for the current warming?

Nobody doubts that CO2 has some greenhouse effect, and nobody doubts that CO2 concentration is increasing. But what would we have to fear if CO2 and temperature actually increased?

§  A warmer world is a better world. Look at weather-related death rates in winter and in summer, and the case is overwhelming that warmer is better.

§  The higher the CO2 levels, the more vibrant is the biosphere, as numerous experiments in greenhouses have shown. But a quick trip to the museum can make that case in spades. Those huge dinosaurs could not exist anywhere on the earth today because the land is not productive enough. CO2 is plant food, pure and simple.

§  CO2 is not pollution by any reasonable definition.

§  A warmer world begets more precipitation.

§  All computer models predict a smaller temperature gradient between the poles and the equator. Necessarily, this would mean fewer and less violent storms.

§  The melting point of ice is 0 ºC in Antarctica, just as it is everywhere else. The highest recorded temperature at the South Pole is -14 ºC, and the lowest is -117 ºC. How, pray, will a putative few degrees of warming melt all the ice and inundate Florida, as is claimed by the warming alarmists?

Consider the change in vocabulary that has occurred. The term global warming has given way to the term climate change, because the former is not supported by the data. The latter term, climate change, admits of all kinds of illogical attributions. If it warms up, that’s climate change. If it cools down, ditto. Any change whatsoever can be said by alarmists to be proof of climate change.

In a way, we have been here before. Lord Kelvin “proved” that the earth could not possibly be as old as the geologists said. He “proved” it using the conservation of energy. What he didn’t know was that nuclear energy, not gravitation, provides the internal heat of the sun and the earth.

Similarly, the global-warming alarmists have “proved” that CO2 causes global warming.

Except when it doesn’t.

To put it fairly but bluntly, the global-warming alarmists have relied on a pathetic version of science in which computer models take precedence over data, and numerical averages of computer outputs are believed to be able to predict the future climate. It would be a travesty if the EPA were to countenance such nonsense.

Best Regards,

Howard C. Hayden
Professor Emeritus of Physics, UConn

1 Comment
Karl Uppiano link
5/10/2014 07:38:09 am

One of the most important axioms of science is, "correlation does not imply causation". Meaning that just because two things happened at the same time doesn't mean one caused the other. It can be a coincidence. Or in the case of CO2, our choice of cause and effect could be reversed. Historically (since the dawn of time), CO2 concentrations increase after a warming trend, not before. If it was before, we would have had thermal runaway millions of years ago, and we wouldn't be here to wring our hands about it now.

In the case of global cooling/global warming/climate change/climate disruption, the fact that human industrialization (that liberates more CO2) happens to coincide with warming (or it did for a while there) appears to be a coincidence with the end of the "Little Ice Age".

Now that the warming has stopped, the climate alarmists are looking for something else, anything else, and appear to have most recently settled on "disruption". Really? How are you going to identify "disruption" in a chaotic system like global climate?

It's a good ploy though. When people forget, or don't realize correlation does not imply causation, it is easy to fool yourself, or for someone with an agenda to fool the masses. Tally ho!

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